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By Christopher Ukandi
There is unsettling silence in Rivers State just days after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) blew the whistle for the commencement of electioneering campaigns for the 2019 general election. Rivers State is known as the hub of political thought. They set the space and others follow. When Atiku Abubakar flagged off his quest to be nominated as the People’s Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, he made the state, his first port of call; so also with other aspirants of the party. Politicians know that to neglect Rivers State, is to do so at one’s peril.
This is why the lack of a flurry of activities in a run up to the general elections is unexpected and infectious given that the party primaries in the state were robust and contentious; particularly with reference to the All Progressive Congress (APC) which set the pace and forced the PDP to order its own house. It must be said that the politicking in the APC gave the impact Rivers State is known for in Nigeria geopolitics. The PDP, political observers noted, had a somewhat lackluster primary.
Critical to the unease is the ominous sign that the silence may be like that moment a dam is about to fall apart. It breaks and holds and in the final split seconds, burst in the inevitable calamity, unleashing an avalanche of tons of water, perishing all it finds downstream. The question then is: Is the disquiet in Rivers State, preparatory to 2019, the beginning of the burst the country is waiting for? Pundits are not sure.
Kenneth Fekumo, a political analyst in the state, posit that the unsettling silence in Rivers State going into 2019 may have a traceable outcome from a hangover of the weight of the PDP National Convention held in the state a few months back. “The National Convention was one of the successes of the state economically but there was a huge weight of hosting the nation; much more that the crowd unprecedented. The attention was condensed and focalized and for the first time, the Wike’s government gave account of themselves, organizationally and security wise. It amounts to saying that after the party, they must be a hangover.”
Fekumo held that politics and economics are a triad mix when executed to gain advantage for the people and the two, exact so much energy that would need to be replenished. “The lull in political activity is coming from too much exertion of energy to host the PDP National Convention. The economy and the people of the state are yet ready to embark on another campaign. After the yuletide, I am sure things would be different and Rivers State would take its place in setting the space as it has been.” He stated.
Eric Ede, commentator on Public Affairs shares the opinion of Fekumo that the flurry of economic activities occasioned by the PDP National Convention is contributory to the slow start of campaigns by political parties in the state particularly, smaller parties that waits on the PDP and the APC for direction. He added a caveat that the lull may have come about by other factors such as the West African Universities Sport Festival and the National Festival of Culture and Arts held recently in Port Harcourt. “These other factors may hurt political parties if they lazy too long in their slumbers.” He contended.
Said Ede: “From a political stand point, when there is hype in the business sphere; the party in power tends to be laid back in its successes because things are going fine with them and then wham, they are caught napping by being pushed out of office. For the silence to be noticeable, it means politicians in the state are not aware of this advantage, so can’t seize the initiative. At this point, the opposition should see that the ruling PDP is venerable if they take a head start. By next January when Wike kick start his campaign, grounds may have been lost and gained.”
The Public Affairs Commentator added that the APC is too engrossed in their battle of self-abnegation to be of relevance in this critical period of taking an early lead in the political process. When told that Tonye Cole has been going on itinerary visits to traditional institutions in the state, Ede scoffed that Cole is putting the cart before the horse. “Cole should better deal with the fifth horseman in the APC before leaving the palace.” He added.
Informed sources in political circles in the state posit that the lull may also have been as a result of the emergence of the candidate of Atiku Abubakar other than the candidate that was the choice of the governor of the state, Nyesom Wike. In this regards, Atiku’s emergence took away the steam from him and the desire to seize the initiative. “There is no other explanation than that,” said Fekumo. “Wike has been a reluctant recruit in the Atiku project even with his appointment as the South south Coordinator of the Atiku’s Presidential Campaign. We hear he may have quit and this would be a minus for his own campaign if he feels too confident to go it alone. He needs the Atiku factor in wining Rivers State as all votes count. Nigerians are not known to vote individual candidates, they vote the bandwagon.” He added.
In the same vein, Fekumo stated that “the emergence of Atiku has also unsettled the APC who thought, perhaps a lackluster candidate would emerge for them to poke and deride the PDP. The APC with Atuku’s emergence don’t readily have answers to proffer and are wondering what life would be like, after Buhari. They seem to have thrown in the towel with the baby, which is the coveted Rivers gubernatorial office!”
Still on the APC, it is understandable why the game has not yet begun with them. “Their set piece taker has baggage hanging on his neck. The Supreme Court Judgment setting aside the earlier judgments of the Federal High Court and the Court of Appeal vitiating the party’s congresses means all candidates produced by the Ojukaye Flag Amachree’s executive are not known to law. What this means is that APC has no candidate going into the election. The unsettling silence on the campaign trail means the coast is clear for the PDP to pick the coveted prize, why dirty the hands,” said Ede.
Perhaps, the unwitting hand in the unsettling silence in the state as electioneering commenced is the too many distractions the state is having in the arm twisting war between security forces and the Rivers State government on one hand and the APC and PDP on the other hand. The state is battling with kidnappings, political murders and how to contend with uncouth language in the public spaces.
It can be said that for the better part of Wike’s government, governance has been how to contend with the fear of being pushed out of office by fifth columnists. The governor feels the harder and louder he cries out the better he would make his point. But the APC on the other hand counters with a much louder voice and both voices are drowning in the babel. So the best bet in the imbroglio for Rivers people is to keep silence and withdraw to their shells.
This is what is behind the unsettling silence in Rivers state; because when the bubble burst, no one would be safe.
