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By David Oguzierem
The 2027 presidential elections in Nigeria are set to be a seismic moment in the nation’s political history. Behind closed doors, the northern oligarchy, a dominant force in Nigeria’s power dynamics, is engineering what could be a game-changing move—bringing former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) back to Aso Rock. In an era where the stakes have never been higher, this plan represents a potent mix of ambition, strategy, and northern political supremacy.
Disillusioned by the missteps and alleged betrayal of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, northern power brokers are leaving nothing to chance. The region, which was instrumental in Tinubu’s contentious 2023 victory, feels shortchanged. Complaints about exclusionary politics, lackluster economic management, and the growing perception of incompetence have left northern stakeholders searching for an alternative.
Tinubu, sensing the growing discontent, has reportedly dispatched emissaries to former President Muhammadu Buhari in Daura, Katsina State, in a bid to rebuild frayed alliances. Yet, these efforts appear to be too little, too late. The North is already charting a new course, and its eyes are firmly fixed on Goodluck Jonathan—a man whose political resurrection could rewrite Nigeria’s democratic script.
The North’s Calculations: A Strategic Gambit
Northern power brokers have always been master tacticians in Nigeria’s political chess game. For decades, the dichotomy between the North and South has shaped power rotations, alliances, and betrayals. The North’s ability to leverage its voting strength and strategic alliances with southern politicians has been key to its dominance.
From Shehu Shagari to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Muhammadu Buhari, northern leaders have navigated the terrain with remarkable dexterity, often outmaneuvering their southern counterparts.
Tinubu’s emergence in 2023 was the result of a delicate compromise, but his inability to fully satisfy northern interests has disrupted the balance. The North now seeks to correct this perceived anomaly. By supporting Jonathan, they are playing a long-term game: a one-term presidency for GEJ ensures a seamless return of power to the North by 2031.
Jonathan fits the bill perfectly. At 70, he represents a “safe pair of hands,” someone who can stabilize the polity without disrupting northern aspirations. His tenure is remembered for economic stability, respect for democratic institutions, and a governance style free from ethnic or religious bias. For the North, this is a calculated move to reclaim its primacy while appeasing other regions.
The Disappointment of Atiku Abubakar
Amid this high-stakes drama, Atiku Abubakar—the perennial presidential contender—is left in political limbo. After his bruising defeat in 2023, Atiku’s political future appears uncertain. The North’s shift towards Jonathan underscores a tacit rejection of Atiku, whose inability to galvanize nationwide support has become an Achilles’ heel. This snub not only signals a changing of the guard but also highlights the North’s ruthlessness in prioritizing winnable candidates over long-standing loyalty.
Jonathan’s Appeal and Challenges
Goodluck Jonathan’s appeal lies in his ability to transcend Nigeria’s divisive politics. Unlike Tinubu, whose tenure has been marred by allegations of nepotism and exclusion, Jonathan’s leadership style is seen as inclusive and unifying. He remains a symbol of humility and respect for the rule of law—a stark contrast to the power-hungry tendencies that have characterized recent administrations.
Jonathan’s economic reforms, such as the Treasury Single Account (TSA), laid the foundation for fiscal transparency. His transformation of INEC into a credible electoral body set the stage for smoother transitions of power. These achievements, coupled with his international reputation as a statesman, make him a formidable candidate.
However, the road to 2027 is fraught with challenges. The South-East, emboldened by Peter Obi’s meteoric rise, may view Jonathan’s comeback as a betrayal of their ambition. Obi, who has captured the imagination of millions with his message of accountability and reform, could split the southern vote, complicating Jonathan’s path to victory.
The Northern Political Supremacy
Despite these hurdles, the North’s political supremacy remains unchallenged. The region’s ability to dictate the pace and direction of national politics is unmatched. By rallying behind Jonathan, the North is sending a clear message: its grasp on Nigeria’s political future is as firm as ever. The visit of high-ranking Yoruba Obas to Buhari in Daura underscores the depth of the North’s influence and the lengths to which southern leaders must go to curry favor.
A Victory for PDP and Jonathan
Barring any unforeseen disruptions, Jonathan’s return under the banner of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is a likely outcome. The PDP, rejuvenated by northern backing and Jonathan’s popularity, stands poised to reclaim power from Tinubu’s fractured All Progressives Congress (APC). With the North’s unwavering support, Jonathan could galvanize a nationwide coalition capable of unseating Tinubu in 2027.
The Political Tsunami Ahead
Nigerian politics is a labyrinth of alliances, betrayals, and recalibrations. The 2027 elections will not merely determine the next president; they will redefine the nation’s trajectory. The North’s gambit to resurrect Jonathan is both audacious and strategic, a testament to its enduring dominance in Nigeria’s power matrix.
As the countdown to 2027 begins, one thing is certain: the North remains the kingmaker, and its choice of Goodluck Jonathan could herald a new chapter in Nigeria’s tumultuous history. Whether this move is a masterstroke or another twist in Nigeria’s unending political drama, only time will tell.
*Oguzierem is the Chairman, Rivers Defense Alliance (RIVDAL). He can be reached through email – daveoguzierem@gmail.com. 08133034594, 07031200894.
