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By Ehichioya Ezomon
The aftermath of “Subsidy is gone” will be a storm in a teacup compared to the political tsunami that’ll sweep Northern Nigeria should President Bola Tinubu carry out the lingering rumours of replacing Vice President Kashim Shettima on the the 2027 ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). It’s a gamble that Tinubu can ill-afford despite his acclaimed political sagacity and “wizardry”!
Dissatisfied and disgruntled Northern politicians, among them members of the APC – hiding under the prevailing hardships caused by tough economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, and insecurity in Northern Nigeria – have put the fear of the devil into the president that he can’t secure a second term in the 2027 General Election unless he drops Shettima for another Muslim or Christian running mate.
The two names publicly floated as a replacement for Shettima are former Kano State Governor and the 2023 presidential candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwoso, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara – both lightweights, nationally, wanting to capitalise on realignments in the polity to upstage the vice president.
Dr Kwankwoso’s a good presidential material. But with all the hype pre-the 2023 poll, he’s only able to secure his Kano base, and installed his son-in-law, Abba Yusuf, as Governor. In the August 2025 bye-elections, the APC snatched one of the two seats from the governing NNPP, thus denting the 2027 momentum of the former Minister of Defence as Tinubu’s running mate.
Mr Dogara’s also a good presidential material, but his undoing for the post of vice president is his decamping from the APC pre-the 2023 poll, on account of then-candidate Asiwaju Tinubu sidelining him, a Christian, to pick Shettima, a former Borno governor, to run on a joint Muslim ticket, which won the February 25, 2023, election.
Though an early convert to Tinubu’s government – and a posterboy analysing and defending the president’s biting economic reforms – Dogara’s case is likened to someone shooting themselves in the foot. And one can’t hazard a guess why Tinubu will want to replace Shettima with Dogara, whose political clout has waned in his home state of Bauchi since 2019 when opposition’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Governor Bala Mohammed took over the reins.
Not even now that United States President Donald Trump’s alleged “Christian genocide” in Nigeria has muddied the political waters of 2027 will Tinubu trifle with replacing Shettima as co-ticket holder in the next election!
Stopping short of denouncing Trump as a meddlesome interloper in their affairs – a delicate issue that the Tinubu administration has gingerly skirted with diplomatic and political engagements with the Americans – Northern youths have spoken for their leaders with pockets of protests against the American threat to their region.
Similarly, youth and socio-political groups from the North-East and North-West have spoken stoutly: Tinubu shouldn’t replace Shettima with whoever – Muslim or Christian – to avoid a backlash, noting that, “stability within the administration will help consolidate the president’s efforts toward national development.”
A December 4, 2025 report by The Nation highlights the groups’ separate media briefings in Gombe and Kaduna, appealing to Tinubu to retain Shettima, and cautioning that, “any move to elevate Dogara to a more prominent political role (of running mate) could unsettle party loyalists and create uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections.”
While the President of the APC Youth Mandate Forum and North-East Youth Forum, Hon. Umar Waziri Kumo, led the Gombe press session; Comrade Haruna Mai Kano headed the Kaduna coalition that includes the North-West Socio-political Group, Northern Rights Concerns Protection, and the Arewa Coalition for Good Governance.
Stating that Shettima “enjoys broad support in the North-East,” and warning that “attempts to undermine his position could lead to discontent among party supporters in the region; the groups urged that Dogara’s political influence “should be carefully evaluated,” advising Tinubu to “ensure strategic considerations that will strengthen national unity and party cohesion.”
President Tinubu shouldn’t take the Northern youth and socio-political groups’ appeal against replacing Shettima for granted, on the grounds that his maverick approach to political contests will see him through 2027 to 2031 in the saddle for eight years.
He’s won all his political battles as a senatorial candidate in 1992, governorship candidate in 1999 and 2003, and presidential candidate in 2023 when obstacles were deliberately ranged against him within and outside the APC government of then-President Muhammadu Buhari, which Tinubu helped bring to power in 2015. Yet, the 2027 General Election is a different battle all together!
The thinking in political circles is that if Tinubu, as a private citizen, could defeat former Vice President and twice candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra Governor and candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, and Kwankwoso of the NNPP; what about now that he’s in power and also in government as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria?
This is a fluid projection that can turn 360° in a matter of 24 hours to poll day! Nothing is guaranteed, not when the opposition is baiting religious and regional cry. The late and overnight surge of Atiku and the PDP in the North-East and North-West in 2023 should guide Tinubu, especially as Atiku’s probably taking his last shot at the presidency in 2027. The bulwark against a repeat scenario is Shettima on the APC ticket to split Atiku’s votes mostly in the North-East!
What does Tinubu have against Shettima? Is it competence, or loyalty that politicians fiercely demand? Shettima possesses both qualities! His work rate and demonstratetable competence aren’t in doubt in whatever functions the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (as updated) assigns to his office, and duties that the president delegates to him. He’s performed credibly to the admiration and appreciation of Nigerians across the political divide.
Genuine leaders are tested in times of crises, and Shettima’s lately shown excellent representation of Nigeria at several fora. His “globe-trotting” – which resonates as a quiet shuttle diplomacy that complements President Tinubu’s marketing of Nigeria since his inaugural on May 29, 2023 – has helped the country to mellow the messy security conundrum that the Trump furore created around the world.
On loyalty, it’s apt to recall the famous quote by former Lagos Governor and ex-Minister of Works, Power and Housing, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), that, “May our loyalties never be tested” – in response to a question when he appeared at the Senate screening for ministerial nominees in October 2015 – over his alleged beef with his then-political “godfather,” Asiwaju Tinubu, now President Tinubu.
As far as the average Nigerian, and members and supporters of the APC can perceive, Shettima’s proven – as an article of faith – his loyalty to Tinubu, the party, his North-East political base, Northern Nigeria, and the entire country. Can we say the same about those scheming to replace him?
Can we see the likes of Shettima in the Coalition of Opposition Politicians (COP) of former officeholders, who congregate in the African Democratic Congress (ADC), vowing to “remove Bola Tinubu” (it pains them to address him as President) from power by whatever means possible?
For all intents and purposes, the opposition camp consists of well-known “betrayers” that’ve trodden the Nigerian political landscape! Needless to name names, as their backstabbing and frontbiting of their political mentors (godfathers), allies and associates reach to the heavens because of individual vaulting ambition to be President of Nigeria.
Like every human, Senator Shettima’s weaknesses and failings – so does Senator Tinubu. As a fast talker, who thinks on his feet, Shettima’s bound to make innocent, and not deliberate, slips that can embarrass the president and his administration. That’s one area being exploited by those who want to supplant him in 2027!
As for delivery of electoral votes, Dogara isn’t guaranteed victory for the APC in his Bauchi political turf talkless of the whole Northern Nigeria. Kwankwoso may eke out a slim win in Kano – if all things remain the same as of now – but not in his North-West base nor Northern Nigeria.
To avoid a potential political tsunami, Vice President Shettima remains the best and surest bet that can swing the needed votes for the APC in Northern Nigeria! President Tinubu shouldn’t change his winning combination to satisfy those, who pray for an opportunity to laugh last if he’s defeated at reelection in 2027.
* Mr Ezomon, journalist and media consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria. Can be reached on X, Threads, Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp @EhichioyaEzomon. Tel: 08033078357.
